We all have the habit of trying to guess the killer in a movie before the big reveal. That’s us making inferences. It’s what happens when your brain connects the dots without being told everything ...

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide expert advice on some of the most pressing challenges facing the nation and world. Our ...

Bayesian inference provides a robust framework for combining prior knowledge with new evidence to update beliefs about uncertain quantities. In the context of statistical inverse problems, this ...

Get your news from a source that’s not owned and controlled by oligarchs. Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily. Last summer, I noticed a peculiar email in my inbox. It was from someone I didn’t ...